What next for ITV?
Allen survives ITV challenge but pressure remains
The fact that two organised attempts at a non-hostile ITV takeover should fail aren't at all surprising: ITV still isn't weak enough to be desperate for such a move, and recent asset disposals have improved ITV's short term prospects. But ITV is still "fire-fighting" its ratings decline with celebrity-inspired stunts that can and do go wrong. Celebrity Wrestling, anyone?
My bet is that Charles Allen was going along with Greg Dyke's proposal as a way of testing the loyality of existing shareholders, knowing full well that the probability of success for such a plan is still fairly remote given the current circumstances. (If that plan backfired then he would be able to concede defeat without losing face.)
ITV desperately needs to ditch the contract rights renewal (CRR) system that makes ITV so heavily dependent on ratings performance; this state of affairs was the main condition of allowing a Granada-Carlton merger in order to satisfy the concerns of advertisers, but in turn is making ITV even more vulnerable to market conditions.
All eyes will be on ITV's audience share and its share price this summer. One more "Celebrity Wrestling"-style ratings disaster for ITV1 is very likely to trigger a hostile takeover, leaving Charles Allen definitely out for the count as a result.
