Sky surprise

Two days ago, James Murdoch said that he didn't see "much of an impact" relating to an ITV/NTL deal, so therefore the reason given for BSkyB today buying a 17.9% stake in ITV - namely that it represented an "opportunity" to provide "stability" for ITV - should be equally treated with suspicion.

But why should BSkyB suddenly be interested in ITV? BSkyB cannot take over ITV plc, but it knows that ITV is relatively weak (which BSkyB benefits from) and is secretly scared of the future potential of an ITV/NTL combination given the right leadership. Being the largest shareholder in ITV, BSkyB can now put a stop to an easy and painless ITV/NTL deal.

Another potential reason for BSkyB being interested in ITV is that ITV produces a number of programmes for the Sky channels - most notably Brainiac - so a stake in ITV is very likely to help secure their continued production, regardless of who else may end up buying ITV shares in the future.

Also bear in mind that BSkyB might want to acquire Channel Five from RTL in some form of exchange deal if RTL wants to buy ITV shares, but Five in itself isn't as important now even compared to only three years ago. However BSkyB could have bought Channel Five in the past - but didn't - so this could now be the opportunity to change its mind if desired.

Today's BSkyB deal won't stop other companies buying shares in ITV, though there is a real danger of the ITV share price falling further if investor interest in ITV starts to cool as well as ITV1 continuing to decline in popularity. What this deal may achieve is buying more time for a rival bid - such as the involvement of RTL - to properly mobilise its resources.

But although NTL may still be close to bankruptcy, if it could convince others such as Richard Branson - himself being previously involved in failed ITV franchise bids - to get behind its cause then it could still be in with a shot, though RTL must now be an even more likely candidate for taking overall control of ITV.

Plus Dawn Airey may potentially not do much for the fortunes of ITV either if she becomes chief executive (given her patchy track record with Sky), though she might be able to do more given greater resources to play with.