Media Guardian : Who'll be the big winner in 2012?

Will Sky be number one? Will Freeview be instead? Or will we all have gone video-on-demand loopy? And how will TV pay for itself if we skip all those ads?

Time will no doubt tell but there's some serious problems for the industry pundits to think about.

But there's one thing to remember - radical changes take time. By the time analogue dies, it will have been fifteen years since digital was first turned on. Broadband may be increasing, but PC ownership is still small compared to TVs, and how many people actually have their TVs connected up to their PC? Which means for VOD to succeed in the short-to-medium term, we'd be looking at yet another set top box.

And how many set top boxes can we physically cope with? How many remotes will we have filling our coffee tables? I'm up to five and that's more than too many for me.

And what will make us convert to a particular platform? Personally I'm happy with Freeview as are a large number of people. Just what would it take to move us happy punters over to the pay TV side?

Who knows. For us mere mortals not running large broadcasters and producers, it's not really one to worry about. But it will no doubt be giving the broadcasters something to scratch their heads about.